Christine Barry serves as research director for Aite Group's Wholesale Banking and Payments practice, focusing on the strategies and technology implementations of global banks of all sizes. Her recent research has addressed global cash management trends and technologies, capturing the valuable small-business customer, digital transformation, user experience initiatives, and the drivers of core banking system replacement. She is a seasoned banking industry expert with more than 20 years of experience in financial services products and technologies. She has worked with a broad range of U.S. And international clients, analyzing industry trends and identifying market opportunities, product gaps, and potential partners to help them achieve their strategic IT goals. Barry is a frequent presenter at leading industry events and has been quoted in various media outlets, including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, BusinessWeek, American Banker, Bank Systems & Technology, and Credit Union Times. She has also appeared on CNN.

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Barry holds an M.B.A. From Babson College and a B.A. In international business from Villanova University. She is a triathlete and has completed six marathons.

FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST FOR THE US DOLLAR: BULLISH US Dollar Talking Points:. touches 18-month high amid emerging market turmoil. Hopes for US, China trade war de-escalation trigger downturn. Hawkish minutes, Jackson Hole news-flow to revive rally See the latest learn what will drive prices in the third quarter! The US Dollar spent most of the past week on the offensive, reaching the highest level in 18 months against an average of its major counterparts.

Worries about continued to drive haven demand. The advance evaporated in the final 48 hours of trade however as safety-seeking capital flows reversed course amid hopes for. First, reports surfaced on Thursday that China’s Vice Commerce Minister will travel to the US later this month for trade talks with a delegation led by the Deputy Secretary of State. Then on Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported that officials from both sides are drawing up the roadmap for a comprehensive trade accord before Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in November. These losses may prove short-lived.

The week ahead looks set to remind investors that the greenback is attractive in both risk on and off conditions (albeit for different reasons). Minutes from this month’s FOMC meeting will offer deeper insight into the thinking that produced a decidedly hawkish policy statement. The spotlight then turns to the central bank’s Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The gathering of leading monetary officials and academics is often used as a venue to offer critical forward guidance, setting the stage for major policy developments to follow. To that end, traders will closely scrutinize a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the conclave. If he sticks to a familiar message – making the case for continued tightening despite emerging market spillover – the US unit is likely to rise anew. FX TRADING RESOURCES.

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Having trouble with your strategy? Here’s the. and have your trading questions answered - Written by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com To c ontact Ilya, use the comments section below or on Twitter. Euro Talking Points pares the sharp decline from earlier this month even as U.S. President Donald Trump tweets that ‘m oney is pouring into our cherished DOLLAR like rarely before,’ but fresh comments from Federal Reserve officials may rattle the recent rebound in the exchange rate as the central bank appears to be on course to implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months. The may continue to impact the near-term outlook for EUR/USD as U.S.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin pledges to implement tougher sanctions against the country, and the geopolitical risks surrounding the monetary union may push the European Central Bank (ECB) to further support the economy as ‘ uncertainties related to global factors, notably the threat of p rotectionism, remain prominent.’ In turn, the ECB’s account of the July meeting may highlight a dovish forward-guidance for monetary policy as President Mario Draghi & Co. Stick to the easing-cycle, and the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) in Europe may continue to drag on EUR/USD especially as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) looks to implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months. With that said, the Kansas City Fed Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming may also influence EUR/USD as Chairman Jerome Powell is slated to speak at the event, and the central bank head may utilize the conference to prepare U.S.

Households and businesses for an imminent rate-hike as the Fed largely achieve the dual mandate for monetary policy. Hawkish comments from Chairman Powell may fuel bets for four rate-hikes in 2018 as ‘ the believes that-for now-the best way forward is to keep gradually raising the federal funds rate,’ and the Fed’s hiking-cycle may keep EUR/USD under pressure, with the broader outlook tilted to the downside as the exchange rate snaps the range-bound price action from June. Keep in mind, recent price action in EUR/USD suggests a larger rebound in underway as the exchange rate carves a fresh series of higher highs & lows, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) bounces back from oversold territory to flash a textbook buy-signal. EUR/USD Daily Chart Keep in mind, b roader outlook for EUR/USD remains tilted to the downside following the break of the June-low (1.1508), but the failed attempt to clear the 1.1290 (61.8% expansion) region raises the risk for a larger rebound especially as the exchange rate carves a bullish sequence. Moreover, the RSI has snapped from oversold territory, but the oscillator may continue to exhibit a bearish behavior as it extends the downward trend carried over from the previous month.

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In turn, a break/close above the 1.1390 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1400 (50% expansion) region may spur a test of the former-support zone around 1.1510 (38.2% expansion). For more in-depth analysis, check out the Additional Trading Resources Are you looking to improve your trading approach?

Review the ‘ ’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow. Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the. Interested in having a broader discussion on current market themes? For an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups! - Written by David Song, Currency Analyst Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong. Are you looking for Check out our Quarterly Forecasts as part of.

Do you want to see how retail traders are currently trading the Japanese Yen? Check out our. JPY Strength Holds as USD/JPY Re-Approaches 110.00 The Japanese Yen continues to hold strength as we move through the middle of August, and this is a theme that’s been rather visible so far throughout 2018. As we came into the year, with buyers helping to reverse years of Abe-nomics fueled weakness. This can be driven back to Japan’s continued saga with inflation. In 2012, current Prime Minister Shinzo Abe re-emerged in the nation’s top political seat, largely on a campaign built around solving the decades-long struggle with deflation and the economic weakness which came along with it.

Shinzo Abe’s ‘three pillars’ approach towards economic policy helped to bring about three years of Yen weakness, with rising from a pre-Abe area from below 80.00 to as high as 125.00 in the summer of 2015. But later in the summer of 2015 is when another theme began to re-emerge, and that was weakness in China, which helped to spike risk aversion around the world. As risk aversion flows heated up in latter-2015 and the first half of 2016, Yen strength remained as a rather constant theme. This didn’t begin to reverse until the US Presidential Election, at which point the Yen showed some very visible weakness for the next three months before finally topping-out again.

Since then – its largely been an exhibition of Yen strength, as can be evidenced from the descending trend-line on the chart below that held the highs in USD/JPY for the most of the next 18 months. USD/JPY Weekly Price Chart Chart prepared by As we came into Q3,. This was largely on the basis of inflation falling-back below 1%, removing the worry that the BoJ may soon be nearing their own announcement of stimulus taper. This got another wind of life in early-August at the Bank of Japan rate decision, as the BoJ made tweaks to their policy outlay to afford more flexibility moving forward. But in the follow-up release of those meeting minutes,; and then we also learned that the bank had previously discussed the prospect of rate hikes in late-2018 should inflation continue to rise.

It didn’t, so rate hikes aren’t really a concern at this point, but the fact that the BoJ was so ready to act in response to rising prices helps to show that the bank may not be as dovish as we had previously expected. Since then, its largely been an exhibition of strength in the Yen, and USD/JPY has re-approached the vaulted. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart: Yen Strength Returns After Q3 Breakout Falters Chart prepared by Next Week’s Economic Calendar Next week’s brings the release of Japanese inflation numbers for the month of July, and this indicator has been drawing down after the earlier-year spike. Should we get another declining read, we could see a blip of weakness re-develop in the Yen; but the bigger question is whether or not this will be enough to offset the potential for strength that could come from continued risk aversion. Japan Headline Inflation: Falls Back Below 1% After Earlier-Year Spike Chart prepared by Risk Aversion Flows in the Yen. We’ve seen some concern flow into markets around the developing scenario in Turkey, but the question of global impact is a valid one. There is some negative exposure in Europe, in particular Spain, but how much might this stoke global risk aversion should this theme continue to develop?

US stocks have remained largely bullish over the past week, and this removes a bit of worry from the prospect of a full-scale collapse. But – with a very valid reason for capital to flow out of the and with the already at yearly highs, the Japanese Yen could be a very attractive ‘safe haven’ to ride out the storm, and this is likely a reason why the Yen has been stronger than the US Dollar over the past few weeks as this situation has continued to develop. This could keep Yen strength as an attractive theme, especially against European counterparts; but against the US Dollar, the question of trend will still remain until prices in USD/JPY either break-below 110.00 or above the 111.50 swing high.

Until then – the forecast for will remain at neutral. To read more: Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Our have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on -pairs such as,. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our. Forex Trading Resources DailyFX offers a plethora of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions.

Our bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking. If you’re looking for educational information, our is there to help new(er) traders while our is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management. Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com Contact and follow James on Twitter. Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Neutral Sterling (GBP) Talking Points:. Positive UK data this week included four-decade low unemployment and an unexpected pick-up in retail sales.

Light UK data calendar next week leaves Sterling at the mercy of Brexit headlines. The DailyFX is available to download. We remain neutral on Sterling for the week ahead while acknowledging that Brexit headlines remains a binary risk that may move sharply in either direction.

Brexit talks are ongoing and, as we go to print, little news has come out of Brussels. The UK government recently announced that it will be releasing a series of no-deal Brexit papers over the next few weeks, covering over 80 areas of UK life, to highlight the potential disruptions in the event of the UK leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement. These papers are likely to see Brexit remain in the headlines, potentially weighing on the British Pound. This week’s data releases showed the UK economy in a positive light with unemployment and retail sales the standouts. From a prior reading of 4.2%, beating expectations of +2.7%. All UK inflation data were in line with analyst’s expectations. Monetary policy is unlikely to change any time soon in response to better UK data releases with the next 0.25% interest rate hike not expected until at least mid-2019.

The for the next week contains no potentially UK market moving releases, while over in the US the latest minutes will be revealed on Wednesday, and should be studied by traders, before a raft of global central banker’s meet for the annual Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. GBPUSD has remained within a two-cent trading range this week and remains spellbound by EU-UK negotiations. GBPUSD Four-Hour Price Chart (July 27 – August 17, 2018) Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – and – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest. Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst To contact Nick, email him at Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1. Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bullish Gold Talking Points:. Gold prices drop into multi-year uptrend support; haven flows battling strength. Wh at’s driving gold prices?.

Join Michael for Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on to discuss this setup and more! Prices are lower for a sixth consecutive week with the precious metal plummeting nearly 2.6% to trade at 1179 ahead of the New York close on Friday. Despite the magnitude of the decline, prices are poised to close well off the weekly lows with our focus next week on a key technical support barrier.

New to Trading? Get started with this Gold at Critical Levels as USD Struggles / Broader Risk Assets Stutter. It was a volatile week for broader equity markets as rising concerns regarding and the ongoing weighed on investor sentiment.

At the same time, underlying strength in the (which has kept pressure on gold) has started to ease with the highlighted earlier this week. Will these mounting geo-political concerns and a waning greenback finally offer some support for the battered yellow metal?

For gold, the price ‘washout’ into fresh yearly lows (a 14% drop from the April highs) warrants attention as we head into next week’s annual Central Banking Symposium in Jackson Hole Wyoming. Despite the decline in price, gold has managed to hold just above a key pivot in price and the focus remains on a reaction off the recent lows registered this week Learn more about how we! Spot Gold IG Trader Sentiment. A summary of shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at + 5.36 (8 4.

3% of traders are long) – bearish reading. Long positions are 2.6% higher than yesterday and 9.3% lower from last week. Short positions are 3.7% higher than yesterday and 12.8% higher from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Spot trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long. Review Michael’s educational series on the Gold Weekly Price Chart In last week’s we noted that, “t he immediate focus heading into next week is on the 1204 support pivot” with a break lower targeting, “subsequent objectives at the 50-line around 1190 s backed closely by a structural support confluence at 1175/80 (area of interest for possible exhaustion / long-entries IF reached).” Price registered a low at 1160 this week before rebounding sharply with gold poised to close the week above confluence support.

Note that RSI is still deep in oversold territory and continues to highlight the downside threat from a momentum perspective. That said, we’ve been tracking this since the 2015 lows and a break / close below 1171/75 would threaten the multi-year uptrend in prices. Weekly resistance now stands at 1204/09 with a breach above the median-line needed to suggest a more significant low is in place. Bottom line: Gold price are testing long-term up-slope support - it’s make-or-break here. From a trading standpoint, we’re looking for a low while above this key zone next week. For a complete technical breakdown of the near-term Gold trading levels (daily & intraday), review this week’s. Why does the average trader lose?

-Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX Follow Michael on Twitter or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com. Last week, we were bullish on the Canadian Dollar and provided USDCAD remains below 1.30 we see no reason to change this view. The Loonie has continued to enjoy another flurry of strong data points this weeks.

Firstly, the most recent GDP data rose above economic forecasts, showing the fastest growth spurt in a year, led by prices, while Friday’s trade deficit saw a significant narrowing, consequently supporting the case for another rate hike by the end of this year. Interestingly, recent data has outperformed relative to the US, as shown by the Citi Surprise Index, in which the US index has dipped into negative, relative to Canada which switched to positive, advocating the case for further USDCAD weakness. US/Canadian Data Outperformance Index Interest Rate Differentials Continue to Tighten Rate hike expectations from the Bank of Canada has continued to firm with around 17bps worth of tightening priced in thus far for the policy meeting in October, while a 25bps rate hike is fully priced in by December.

As such, US-CA 2yr yield bond spreads have continued to move in favour of CAD and has breached through the psychological 60bps mark, which has continued to keep USDCAD on the backfoot. Focus Going Forward for CAD As we look to next week’s economic calendar, the vocal point for Canada will be the jobs report at the backend of the week, while eyes will also be on headlines regarding NAFTA which continues to present the biggest risk to the Canadian economy. Source: DailyFX USDCAD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIM EFRAME (December 2017-August 2018) CAD Technical Levels Resistance 1: 1.3000 (Psychological Level) Resistance 2: 1.3115 (23.6 Fibonacci Retracement) Resistance 3: 1.3180-1.32 (Resistance Area) Support 1: 1.2980 (100DMA) Support 2: 1.2940-50 (Support Area) CAD TRADING RESOURCES:. See our to learn what will drive prices through mid-year!. Just getting started? See our beginners’.

Having trouble with your strategy? - Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst To contact Justin, email him at Follow Justin on Twitter. Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the The Australian Dollar faces multiple sources of downward pressure but the coming week’s light economic data schedule may offer it some probably temporary reprieve. The widening interest rate differential in favor of the does not appear to be going anywhere soon. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor last week that, although the RBA still thinks the next move, when it comes, will be a rise, there’s no near-term case for any such move. Indeed local futures markets do not now price in any change to the record-low, 1.50% Official Cash Rate until at least the start of 2020. But the Aussie’s worries go a little deeper than simple rate comparisons.

Risk aversion sparked first by global trade worries and then by thy collapse of the Turkish Lira has also weighed on the growth-linked currency. Morever, signs that the best of China’s growth for the year may now be behind us have also done it no favours. Official industrial production and capital investment data out of China missed forecasts significantly last week. They were also the first look at figures for July, and suggested that 2018’s second half may well be tougher than its first, with or without a trade settlement between Washington and Beijing. So, given all of the above the Australian Dollar backdrop looks just about as gloomy as ever, especially as the markets also suspect that the RBA doesn’t mind its weakness at all given how often it talks about a weaker currency making growth and inflation goals easier to hit.

But the week doesn’t offer much in the way of Australian economic numbers. We will get the minutes of the last RBA monetary policy meeting. However, seeing as investors heard from the governor himself only a few days ago, scope for big moves on the minutes would seem very limited.

Make no mistake, the Australian Dollar is still biased lower against its US big brother, but it has been hit fairly hard in the last couple of weeks. The coming sessions could offer some breathing space and consolidation so it’s a neutral call. Resources for Traders Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold and offer trading guides, with one. There’s also a. Be sure to make the most of them all.

They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free. Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research F ollow David on Twitter or use the Comments section below to get in touch! Have a question about what’s in store for New Zealand Dollar next week? Join a to ask it live! After consolidating since late-June, the sentiment-linked New Zealand Dollar made its decision and headed lower against the. Arguably, it was a dovish RBNZ that sent NZD/USD (-1.3%).

But, it did not end there. Worries about amidst the Lira’s performance soured market mood. NZD/USD fell about 2.37% last week, the most since October 2017. A major break lower in NZD/USD begs the question if it could be sustainable. Continuation might mean eventually testing the January 2016 and August 2015 lows. Prison break season 4 episode 23.

This could be the case, but perhaps not because of domestic event risk. New Zealand’s economic calendar docket is lacking critical events. Even if it did, the central bank’s downgrade in future rate hike expectations undermines its relevance if data outperforms.

Apart from retail sales, the US economic docket is also relatively sparse on key data. Although it may be worth tuning in for the New York Fed’s Q2 household debt and credit report on Monday.

We shall see how tightening local credit conditions are impacting borrowing. If lending is still strong and upbeat, it could yet bolster the case for the Fed to raise rates to slow inflation. This could boost USD at the expense of. With that in mind, the focus for the New Zealand Dollar in the week ahead will likely come from risk trends and how global stock indexes behave.

Rising worries around Turkey, and to a certain extent ever-present ones around Italy, could undermine both equities and ECB 2019 rate hike bets. The former could weigh on the Kiwi Dollar while the latter can lift the greenback further at the expense of NZD. Meanwhile across the English Channel, the risk of the UK inching closer to a “no deal” Brexit outcome also overshadows global stocks.

Last week, Trade Secretary Liam Fox said that the chance of one is. Prime Minister Theresa May is also preparing the country in the event that one occurs. A meeting to discuss that with her cabinet members is reportedly scheduled to occur in early September. Next week will also see Brexit talks resume in Brussels on Thursday and Friday. Given that Mrs. May seems to be stepping up preparations in the event that the UK abruptly breaks off with the EU, delays in the progress of negotiations could increase uncertainty as the March 2019 withdrawal deadline approaches. If the markets are unnerved by developments from Brussels, the sentiment-linked New Zealand Dollar could be at risk.

This is amplified if the US Dollar takes a role as a safe haven ahead too, adding to NZD/USD downside pressure. On a side note, AUD/NZD could net out market mood swings as it sometimes behaves as a. This allows it to focus more so on developments relating to RBA and RBNZ monetary policy expectations. A better-than-expected Australian jobs report next week could push AUD/NZD higher. Data out of the country has been increasingly outperforming relative to expectations lately.

This opens the door for an upside surprise, perhaps boosting RBA rate hike bets amidst a dovish RBNZ. Check out our 3Q forecasts for the US Dollar and Equities in the New Zealand Dollar Trading Resources:. Just getting started?. Having trouble with your strategy?. See how the New Zealand Dollar is viewed by the trading community at the - Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or on Twitter.

About your FOREX.com Demo Account A demo account is intended to familiarize you with the tools and features of our trading platforms and to facilitate the testing of trading strategies in a risk-free environment. Results achieved on the demo account are hypothetical and no representation is made that any account will or is likely to achieve actual profits or losses similar to those achieved in the demo account. Conditions in the demo account cannot always reasonably reflect all of the market conditions that may affect pricing and execution in a live trading environment.